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Welcome back to SUNSPORT’S Weekend Wager, where we bring you the best betting insights for the upcoming Premier League matches this weekend.
With the title race wrapping up, the battle for Champions League spots is heating up, promising some exciting matchups.
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The action kicks off with a showdown between the top two teams at Anfield, as Arsenal seeks to restore their pride against the reigning champions, Liverpool.
Additionally, Newcastle is gearing up to take on Chelsea in what could be a pivotal match for the top five.
Bournemouth faces Aston Villa as Unai Emery’s side looks to secure a Champions League berth.
This weekend’s lineup features insights from host Will Pugh, football journalist Kweku Afari, and Betfair betting expert James Mackie.
Liverpool vs Arsenal – Sunday, 4:30pm
Kweku: Mohamed Salah to score anytime. 7/5
“I was surprised by the odds when I first saw them.
“I’m confident in my pick: Mo Salah to score anytime at 7/5.
“Salah is the top scorer in the Premier League with 28 goals this season and leads in assists as well.
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“Salah is definitely the standout player in the league, excelling in key matches.
“Historically, he has scored 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, second only to his 13 against Manchester United and 12 against Tottenham.
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“With recent setbacks, I believe Salah will be ready to make an impact for Liverpool when it counts.
Will: Draw. 15/8
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“I gave this matchup considerable thought, as it’s tough to forecast when little is on the line. Arsenal might be mentally spent.
“If I had to choose, I’d side with Liverpool for the festive atmosphere at Anfield, yet I believe a draw, priced at 15/8, is the more probable result.
“Liverpool has not lost at home to Arsenal in their last 14 meetings across all competitions, with seven victories and seven draws, since suffering a 2-0 defeat in September 2012.
“This indicates Arsenal faces an uphill battle to win. Still, Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five league encounters with Liverpool, claiming two wins and three draws, which is their longest unbeaten record against them since an eight-match league run from October 2007 to April 2011.
“This will mark the third occasion Arsenal will face Premier League champions after the title was clinched; the prior instances were a 1-0 draw with Manchester United in the 2012-13 season and a win over Liverpool in 2019-20.”
James: 2+ shots for Virgil van Dijk. 12/5
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“Virgil van Dijk has been exceptional, netting twice in his last four matches. It raises the question of whether he can keep this trend going.
“He poses a serious threat from set pieces. Statistically, the bet—Van Dijk to have two or more shots during the game at 12/5—has solid backing. The odds for just one shot are 4/9, making the 12/5 for two shots appealing.
“He’s made two shots in three of his last four matches. Moreover, Arsenal has allowed 39% of their Premier League goals this season from set pieces, the highest in the league.
“These statistics bolster the bet on Van Dijk at 12/5. He’ll be targeting every corner.
“This Sunday also marks his 300th Premier League appearance, making it an ideal moment to bet on him for two or more shots.
Speaker 2: That’s where the hidden value lies for me.”
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa – Saturday 5:30pm
Kweku: Emiliano Martinez 5+ saves. 11/4
“Statistically, this bet is solid. Bournemouth leads the Premier League in shots after turnarounds this season, with a whopping total of 65.
“With 65 shots and eight goals coming from high turnovers, their pressing style under [Andoni] Iraola effectively creates opportunities.
“I expect Martinez to have a very busy match.
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“Furthermore, Salah and Cole Palmer are the only two players with more shots than Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo this season, who has recorded 118 shots.
“This illustrates that Bournemouth creates opportunities, although they don’t always convert them.
“Given that Martinez is a world-class shot-stopper and Bournemouth often fires a lot of shots, betting on Martinez to achieve five or more saves at 11/4 is quite appealing.
Will: Draw HT, Bournemouth win FT. 11/2
“Bournemouth has scored more goals during second-half stoppage time than any other Premier League team this season, while only Southampton has conceded more during that period than Aston Villa.
“Villa has allowed in eight goals during second-half stoppage time, while Bournemouth has netted eight, showcasing their endurance and capability to perform late in matches.
“In their inaugural Premier League match in August 2015, Bournemouth lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa. However, they have remained unbeaten in three subsequent home meetings, scoring exactly two goals in each.
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“That yields two wins and one draw, evidencing their adaptability against this opponent. Furthermore, Bournemouth has won seven of their 13 Premier League matches against teams above them in the standings this season.
“They have drawn three times and lost three, giving them the highest win rate of any team facing multiple such contests this term.
“Thus, I believe Bournemouth has a solid shot. They seem underrated this season.”
James: Ollie Watkins to score or assist. 11/10
“In my view, this is the best bet of the weekend.
“Getting odds that favor top strikers in the Premier League for scoring or assisting is an excellent opportunity, and Ollie Watkins is a prime target.
“Watkins has firmly contributed to five goals in his four Premier League starts against Bournemouth.
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“With one goal and four assists against the Cherries, he holds the record for most assists against a single opponent.
“I see this bet as brilliant, as it not only covers his potential to score but also his capacity to assist, all while enjoying favorable odds of 11/10 for a top striker who’s been consistently on form this season.
Ascot, Victoria Cup – Saturday, 2:40pm
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James: Qirat 5/1
“I’m placing my bet on Qirat, currently favored at 5/1. Trained by Ralph Beckett, Ross O’Ryan is among the leading jockeys at the moment.
“This horse boasts impressive form at Ascot, particularly in an 18-runner handicap. What catches my attention is that Qirat appears to possess group horse quality competing in a handicap.
“Facing less competition, they carry slightly heavier weights yet will encounter tougher challenges later in the season.
“This is their seasonal debut, racing off a mark of 99. They’ve previously triumphed off 92 and finished second off markings of 97 and 98.
“Having performed commendably at Ascot, where they secured a strong second place in a top-tier handicap, I believe at 5/1 with a 5-6 pound increase, Qirat stands an excellent chance in this race.
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